DUBLIN, June 15, 2020 /PRNewswire/ --
Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (Nasdaq: JAZZ) today announced along with its partner PharmaMar (MSE: PHM) that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved Zepzelca™ (lurbinectedin) for the treatment of adult patients with metastatic small cell lung cancer (SCLC) with disease progression on or after platinum-based chemotherapy.1 Zepzelca was approved under accelerated approval based on overall response rate (ORR) and duration of response. Continued approval for this indication may be contingent upon verification and description of clinical benefit in a confirmatory trial.1
The FDA approval of Zepzelca is based on monotherapy clinical data from an open-label, multi-center, single-arm study in 105 adult platinum-sensitive and platinum-resistant patients with SCLC who had disease progression after treatment with platinum-based chemotherapy.2 The data, which appeared in The Lancet Oncology May 2020 issue, showed that in patients with relapsed SCLC, Zepzelca demonstrated an ORR of 35 percent and a median duration of response of 5.3 months as measured by investigator assessment (30 percent and 5.1 months respectively, as measured by an independent review committee (IRC)).1
"Small cell lung cancer is a disease with limited treatment options, and the approval of Zepzelca represents an important advance for patients whose metastatic SCLC has progressed on or after platinum-based therapy," said Bruce Cozadd, chairman and CEO of Jazz Pharmaceuticals. "While patients may initially respond to traditional chemotherapy, they often experience an aggressive recurrence that is historically resistant to treatment. Jazz congratulates PharmaMar on the successful development of Zepzelca and we are proud to partner with them to bring this new therapy to the U.S. market, expanding our presence in oncology."
Zepzelca will be commercially available in the U.S. in early July. As previously announced in December 2019, PharmaMar and Jazz entered into an exclusive license agreement, which became effective in January 2020, granting Jazz U.S. commercialization rights to Zepzelca.
"Seeing first-hand the aggressive nature of SCLC and knowing that the large majority of those diagnosed will experience relapse, I am excited to see an effective new treatment demonstrating durable responses," said Dr. Jeff Petty, oncology specialist, Wake Forest Baptist Health. "For doctors, patients and their families, Zepzelca is an important and much-needed addition to the treatment landscape for relapsing SCLC."
"We are pleased to bring a new treatment choice to relapsed SCLC patients," said José María Fernández Sousa-Faro, PhD, president of PharmaMar. "The U.S. FDA accelerated approval of Zepzelca underscores its potential to fill an unmet need in this often-overlooked SCLC community." ...
CAMBIO DE DISCURSO : ADIÓS A LA SEGUNDA LÍNEA SCLC-ES EN EEUU Y EN EU ...CAMBIAMOS DISCURSO A MANTENIMIENTO EN FIRTS-LINE /// SI NO EXISTIERA IMFORTE ... AHORA MISMO PHARMAMAR ESTARÍA ANTE UNA GRAVE SITUACIÓN /// IMFORTE EN EU DE UN TAM DE 600 MILLONES A UN MERCADO REAL MUCHO MENOR QUE PODRÍA SER DE TAN SOLO UNOS 85 MILLONES /// 2 DE OCTUBRE DE 2028 ... ES LA FECHA PARA LA POSIBLE ENTRADA DE GENÉRICOS DE LURBINECTEDIN ...
15 junio 2020
PharmaMar Group . Biotechnology And Clinical Trials .
Adicionalmente la Compañía está Trabajando en Nuevos Candidatos basados en la tecnología del RNAi para el Tratamiento de las Alergias
Oculares y de Enfermedades de Retina. Estos nuevos Candidatos se ha Analizado la Eficacia en Modelos Preclínicos para dichas Patologías .
El " YA Candidato SYL1801 " para el Tratamiento Tópico de la Enfermedad de Degeneración Macular asociada la Edad ha Completado los Estudios Preclínicos de Toxicología Regulatoria en dos especies animales, los resultados indican que el producto presenta un buen perfil de seguridad y no se han encontrado efectos toxicológicos del SYL1801 tras la administración continuada del producto por vía ocular. Durante este año se ha completado el diseño del ensayo de fase I para el SYL1801 que se llevará a cabo durante el año 2020 .
14 junio 2020
13 junio 2020
Brasil Supera a Reino Unido Como el Segundo País con Más Muertes por Covid-19 Mientras Bolsonaro Continúa con su Campaña Negacionista . Post By Celtia .
Pese a que la Curva aún No ha Llegado al Pico, lo que Podría Ocurrir en las Próximas Semanas .
Brasil Superó a Reino Unido y se convirtió este jueves en el segundo país con mayor número de muertes por Covid-19 al alcanzar los 41.828 fallecidos, con muchas regiones del país inmersas ya en una cuestionada desescalada pese a la aún fuerte propagación de la enfermedad.
El Ministerio de Salud registró 909 óbitos por coronavirus en las últimas 24 horas y sumó 25.982 nuevos casos, con lo que el balance total de contagios confirmados ascendió a 828.810. ...
Covid19 . No ha Terminado Aún la Primera Ola de la Pandemia y Ya se está Hablando de la llegada de la Segunda Ola . Post By Celtia .
"Asumimos Que Habrá una Segunda Oleada : La Pregunta es Cuándo y Cómo Será de Grande".
12 junio 2020
Hidroxicloroquina NO Es Eficaz Contra el Covid19 . ESTUDIO DE ORIOL MITJÀ : La Hidroxicloroquina NO Previene la COVID19 .
En Cuanto al Remdesivir Siempre fue un Fármaco Oportunista y Bien Colocado ...
Ahora con el Covid19 el Remdesivir mostró mejoría en DOS PACIENTES en Marzo 2020 y Gilead le sacó todo el rendimiento que pudo debido a la Pandemia Galopante que se avecinaba .
La OMS Ayudó lo Suyo ... La Historia Continúa ...
- Realizó ensayos clínicos durante la Epidemia provocada por el Virus del Ébola en África Occidental entre 2013 y 2016. Los resultados preliminares fueron prometedores y se usó en el entorno de Emergencia para el Brote de Ébola de Kivu 2018-20 junto con otros ensayos clínicos, hasta agosto de 2019, cuando los Funcionarios de Salud Congoleños anunciaron que NO Era Efectivo en Comparación con Otros Tratamientos como el mAb114 y el producido por Regeneron REGN3470-3471-3479 (también llamado REGN-EB3).
Ahora con el Covid19 el Remdesivir mostró mejoría en DOS PACIENTES en Marzo 2020 y Gilead le sacó todo el rendimiento que pudo debido a la Pandemia Galopante que se avecinaba .
La OMS Ayudó lo Suyo ... La Historia Continúa ...
Anticuerpos . Abbvie Se Asocia con Genmab para Desarrollar y Comercializar una Terapia Contra el Cáncer . Abbvie Pagará a Genmab 750 Millones de Dólares (660,2 Millones de euros) por Adelantando .
Abbvie Pagará a Genmab 750 millones de Dólares (660,2 Millones de euros) por Adelantando para Desarrollar y Comercializar Conjuntamente Tres de los Productos de Anticuerpos Dirigidos Contra el Cáncer.
Abbvie ha anunciado un acuerdo con la firma danesa de biotecnología Genmab AS para desarrollar y comercializar conjuntamente tratamientos contra el cáncer.
Según los términos del acuerdo, Abbvie pagará a Genmab 750 millones de dólares (660,2 millones de euros) por adelantado para desarrollar y comercializar conjuntamente tres de los productos de anticuerpos dirigidos contra el cáncer de Genmab, incluido su tratamiento potencial para el cáncer de sangre, epcoritamab, actualmente en un estudio de etapa intermedia. ...
Abbvie ha anunciado un acuerdo con la firma danesa de biotecnología Genmab AS para desarrollar y comercializar conjuntamente tratamientos contra el cáncer.
Según los términos del acuerdo, Abbvie pagará a Genmab 750 millones de dólares (660,2 millones de euros) por adelantado para desarrollar y comercializar conjuntamente tres de los productos de anticuerpos dirigidos contra el cáncer de Genmab, incluido su tratamiento potencial para el cáncer de sangre, epcoritamab, actualmente en un estudio de etapa intermedia. ...
Las Señales de Alarma del Cáncer de Próstata, el Tumor Más Frecuente en los Hombres .
El riesgo de desarrollar un cáncer de próstata empieza a aumentar a partir de los 50 años y, desde los 40 años cuando existen antecedentes familiares de la enfermedad . ...
11 junio 2020
Covid19 . El Director General de la OMS (Organización Mundial de la Salud), Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Ha Avisado Que la Pandemia por el Nuevo Coronavirus Está Mejorando Entre los Países Europeos Pero "" EMPEORANDO"" a Nivel Mundial.
En los últimos diez días se han notificado a la OMS más de 100.000 casos de covid-19, la enfermedad que provoca el nuevo coronavirus, y el 75% de los que se notificaron este domingo procedían de 10 países, especialmente de América y Asia del sur. ...
Peur! Dangereux “Tiger Mosquito” Apparaît, Transmetteur de 22 Types de Virus .
UNE moustique qui peut transmettre 22 virus Différents, comme la Dengue, le Chikungunya et le Zika mettent en alerte diverses régions d’Europe.
le aedes albopictus, connu sous le nom de « tigre moustique », est apparu dans l’archipel d’Ibiza, en Espagne. Sa taille, comprise entre 5 et 10 millimètres de long, peut être quatre fois supérieure à celle du moustique commun, et sa piqûre peut pénétrer les vêtements. ...
10 junio 2020
OMS Asegura Que "" EN POCAS SEMANAS HABRÁ BUENAS NOTICIAS SOBRE LOS TRATAMIENTOS "". En Cuanto a la Vacuna Confirma Que No Estará Lista Para Este Año . Post By Celtia .
Malas Noticias para la Vacuna y Buenas Noticias en cuanto a Posibles Tratamientos .
La Directora del Departamento de Salud Pública y de Ambiente en la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS), María Neira, ha anunciado que la vacuna contra el Covid-19 no va a estar disponible este año. No obstante, asegura que en pocas semanas habrá "buenas noticias" sobre los Tratamientos. ...
La Responsable de la OMS ha asegurado que los tratamientos que se están utilizando en la actualidad, y que están siendo valorados por el organismo, van a dar "buenas noticias" en un par de semanas. ...
La Directora del Departamento de Salud Pública y de Ambiente en la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS), María Neira, ha anunciado que la vacuna contra el Covid-19 no va a estar disponible este año. No obstante, asegura que en pocas semanas habrá "buenas noticias" sobre los Tratamientos. ...
La Responsable de la OMS ha asegurado que los tratamientos que se están utilizando en la actualidad, y que están siendo valorados por el organismo, van a dar "buenas noticias" en un par de semanas. ...
COVID19 . El Jefe Emérito de Microbiología del Marañón : " A Finales de Febrero Desde Italia " Ya nos Advertían de Que la Gente Moría como Chinches. Afirma Que en España se " Perdieron 10 Días Preciosos " en Reaccionar Ante la Pandemia . Post By Celtia .
El Fundador de la Sociedad Española de Microbiología, asesor emérito del servicio de enfermedades infecciosas del Hospital Gregorio Marañón, Emilio Bouza, mantiene que España "perdió un tiempo precioso" en reaccionar a la pandemia por Coronavirus. Y ello, a pesar de los avisos insistentes que llegaban del sistema Sanitario Italiano .
"A Finales de Febrero", tal y como ha explicado el Doctor Bouza en el grupo de trabajo de Sanidad de la Comisión de Reconstrucción, "Nuestros Compañeros de Italia ya nos advertían de que la Gente se Moría como Chinches". ...
"A Finales de Febrero", tal y como ha explicado el Doctor Bouza en el grupo de trabajo de Sanidad de la Comisión de Reconstrucción, "Nuestros Compañeros de Italia ya nos advertían de que la Gente se Moría como Chinches". ...
Covid19 // Portugal : Las Autoridades, Preocupadas por los Brotes de Coronavirus Localizados en Lisboa . Post By Celtia .
Portugal Registra el Mayor Aumento de Nuevos Casos de Coronavirus desde el 8 de Mayo. Hay Siete Muertes más y 421 Nuevos casos de Infección, la mayoría Registrados en la Región de la Capital . ...
El Brote de COVID-19 Comenzó en Agosto . Post By Celtia .
El Coronavirus podría haberse propagado en China desde agosto del año pasado, según la Harvard Medical School. Esto se basó en la investigación de imágenes satelitales de patrones de viaje en hospitales y datos de motores de búsqueda. Sin embargo, China ha desestimado el informe como "ridículo". ...
El Cierre de Escuelas y el Confinamiento han Evitado 450.000 Muertes por COVID-19 en España . Post By Celtia .
Las Restrictivas medidas impuestas contra el COVID-19, como el cierre de escuelas y el confinamiento, han evitado alrededor de 450.000 muertes en España, un total de 3,1 millones en once países europeos, según ha estimado un estudio del Imperial College de Londres (Reino Unido) publicado en la revista 'Nature'. ....
Hallan Pruebas de Que el Tipo de Sangre Juega un Papel Importante a la Hora de Sufrir la Covid-19 . Post By Celtia .
Los Resultados Preliminares de un estudio realizado por la Compañía 23andMe sugieren que las Personas que tienen Sangre del Tipo O están más protegidos contra el Coronavirus . ...
YONDELIS® ... Objetivo a Conseguir ... Poder Tratar a los Pacientes con LeiomioSarcoma en PRIMERA LÍNEA Combinado con Doxorubicin . CHICAGO - La Molecola Trabectedina , Prodotta da PharmaMar , In Combinazione con Doxorubicina è un Trattamento Efficace Di Prima Linea Per i Pazienti Affetti da LeiomioSarcoma.
Leiomiosarcoma: Esperanzas de Tratamientos más Efectivos .
CHICAGO - La Molécula Trabectedina, Producida por PharmaMar, en Combinación con Doxorrubicina es un Tratamiento Efectivo de Primera Línea para Pacientes con LeiomioSarcoma.
Esto es lo que dijo la Dra. Patricia Pautier, Departamento de Oncología Médica, Instituto Gustave Roussy, Villejuif (Francia) en la reciente reunión anual de la Sociedad Americana de Oncología Clínica (ASCO) en Chicago.
"La combinación de doxorrubicina y trabectedina es una terapia activa de primera línea para pacientes con leiomiosarcoma uterino y de partes blandas, explicó Pautier: los resultados en términos de tasa de respuesta global, supervivencia libre de progresión y tiempo de supervivencia general son muy alentadores".
Los resultados están pendientes del estudio aleatorizado de fase III LMS04, que compara esta combinación seguida de trabectedina versus doxorrubicina como agente único de primera línea para el tratamiento del leiomiosarcoma metastásico ".
El estudio de Fase II cumplió sus objetivos primarios y secundarios, con una mediana de 10,1 meses sin progresión, una mediana de supervivencia general de 34,4 meses y un perfil de seguridad aceptable. (A.Cap.)
CHICAGO - La Molécula Trabectedina, Producida por PharmaMar, en Combinación con Doxorrubicina es un Tratamiento Efectivo de Primera Línea para Pacientes con LeiomioSarcoma.
Esto es lo que dijo la Dra. Patricia Pautier, Departamento de Oncología Médica, Instituto Gustave Roussy, Villejuif (Francia) en la reciente reunión anual de la Sociedad Americana de Oncología Clínica (ASCO) en Chicago.
"La combinación de doxorrubicina y trabectedina es una terapia activa de primera línea para pacientes con leiomiosarcoma uterino y de partes blandas, explicó Pautier: los resultados en términos de tasa de respuesta global, supervivencia libre de progresión y tiempo de supervivencia general son muy alentadores".
Los resultados están pendientes del estudio aleatorizado de fase III LMS04, que compara esta combinación seguida de trabectedina versus doxorrubicina como agente único de primera línea para el tratamiento del leiomiosarcoma metastásico ".
El estudio de Fase II cumplió sus objetivos primarios y secundarios, con una mediana de 10,1 meses sin progresión, una mediana de supervivencia general de 34,4 meses y un perfil de seguridad aceptable. (A.Cap.)
PharmaMar , A “Value Bet” Hidden In The Depths Of The Sea? .
By danitrade // Tue, 06/09/2020 .
The information flow about the progress of vaccines research, antiviral drugs and even covid-19 test kits has been an important factor that has affected financial markets since the outbreak emerged. In fact, some days it was the main driver that was moving the world equity indexes. Pharma companies that make a positive research public are seeing dramatic spikes in their stock price and upsets are being priced accordingly too.
One example is the American biotech Gilead Sciences. The constant positive and negative news on its antiviral drug Remdesivir has turned the stock into a rollercoaster. Another one is Moderna, a serious candidate to produce a vaccine, that has tripled in only 4 months, even though now is trading 50% off the highs. All in all, the Nasdaq Biotech sector is around 8% above the February highs and it seems that investors’ appetite for the sector in this new era has come to stay.
Most of pharma stocks with potential solutions against the covid-19 are implicitly pricing certain probabilities that their vaccines, antiviral medications or other products, will be approved and will come into the market. One of this companies is the Spanish biotech Pharma Mar and the reason for this article is that the market might not be pricing properly the chances of its antitumoral Aplidin becoming a successful player in the coronavirus drugs landscape.
Pharma Mar is a $1.2 billion market cap company focused on oncology and quoted in the Madrid Stock Exchange. Pharma Mar is the world leader in the discovery of antitumor drugs of marine origin. They have currently 2 drugs in the market, Yondelis and Aplidin, and a potential 3rd one, Lurbinectedin, to treat small cell lung cancer, is waiting to be approved by the FDA on August 16th, if not earlier. A Nature paper written by a group of international researchers, headed by Nevan Krogan of the University of California said that Aplidin, “might may inhibit the translation of viral RNA by promoting stress-granule aggregation”. And why an oncology company might have an effective drug against the coronavirus? Here we go.
Once the covid-19 outbreak emerged, Pharma Mar started thinking that their drug against multiple Myeloma, Aplidin, due to its special mechanism of action, could be a strong antiviral drug against covid-19 and also against other coronaviruses. Aplidin is a drug already approved in Australia for R/R Multiple Myeloma. To test their hypothesis, the company contacted the CSIC, a State Agency in Spain for scientific research and technological development. Some weeks later Luis Enjuanes, a prestigious virologist who leads the CSIC Biotechnology National Center and who is also researching to find a covid-19 vaccine, confirmed that the in vitro test they did with Aplidin was “quite spectacular”. The CSIC made tests with a SARS virus that kills humans and confirmed that Aplidin “not only inhibits the spread of the virus, but it does it at really low concentrations with a product that is not toxic for humans”. These results have also been confirmed by Adolfo García Sastre, director of the Global Health and Emerging Pathogens Institute of Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York, who went further and made the trials in humanized mices, with great results too.
Pharma Mar has stated that “the effect of Aplidin in the coronavirus is 1000 times higher than that of Remdesivir from Gilead”. The president of the company, Férnandez Sousa, has explained that the mechanism of action of Aplidin is different. “Most of antivirals try to attack a virus protein, while Aplidin attacks a protein of the cells that need it, what is called the host protein (EF1A), which Covid-19 infected human cells needs to reproduce and spread. This avoids the virus from generating resistance mutation.”
After these promising lab trials, the company presented a Phase II clinical trial in the Spanish Agency of Medicines and Medical Devices (AEMPS) and, 40 days after the request, the AEMPS accepted a Phase I clinical trial, that is already being carried out in 6 hospitals in Spain. The company was probably upset with the AEMPS decision. Firstly because, in such an extraordinary environment where thousands of people are dying daily worldwide, it took them 40 days to answer. Secondly because they expected a Phase II trial. Aplidin is already approved in Australia, so the toxicity shouldn’t have been an issue. Moreover, the dose needed to overcome the virus seems to be much lower than that to treat a myeloma. The good news is that results seem to be very promising. The company General director Luis Mora has said recently that the trials results are, for the moment “very very very good”. Pharma Mar is so confident on the effectiveness of Aplidin, that they have also approached the FDA and other national medical regulatory bodies. The number of potential patients that can be tested in the US is much larger than in Spain, where the pandemic has retreated significantly in the last weeks. They will receive an answer of the FDA within the next days or weeks and it has to be seen if, in case of an affirmative response, it will a be phase I or phase II clinical trial. In any case, the market is probably not pricing a potential positive response from the FDA.
Pharma Mar stock price has tripled in the last year, mainly due to the positive newsflow on their compound against small cell lung cancer lurbinectedin. The firm has already signed a licence and distribution agreement with Jazz Pharmaceuticals, whereby they have already received a $200 Mill. payment in January 2020. They are also eligible to receive regulatory milestone payments of up to $250 Mill upon regulatory approval, as well as royalties of up to 30% on net sales and $550 Mill.
But the stock return related to Aplidin as a potential drug against the coronavirus has been modest. Pharma Mar was trading just below €5 pre-covid19 and now is trading only around 1 eur higher. The question now is if the market is pricing correctly the potential of Aplidin as being one of the most powerful antiviral drugs to treat covid-19 and also all the coronaviruses that may appear in the future.
All in all, given that the phase of the trial is still I or II and even considering the optimistic feedback the company is making public, if we consider historical data on past clinical trials, the probability of Aplidin being launched to the market as a single agent is lower than 50%. That is, the most likely scenario is that Aplidina won’t get the market as an antiviral for covid-19. In fact analysts that cover the stock are pricing a zero probability.
But, what if it finally comes through? What would be the estimated sales? What could be the size of the market? Well, let’s make some numbers. Gilead Sciences market cap is nearly $20 billion higher than it was pre-coronavirus and it was nearly $30 billion higher when the stock price made its highs on April 17th after announcing successful results on their Phase III clinical trials for Remdesivir. On the other hand, some analysts expect peak sales of $7.6 billion for Remdesivir in 2022. Remdesivir has been authorized in the US under an emergency but it has not been approved by the FDA yet, so it’s not even pricing a full approval. Moreover, Remdesivir doesn’t seem to be a panacea. On April 23th the WHO accidentally revealed data from a study in China showing that the treatment neither improved patients’ condition nor tamped down on the amount of virus in their blood.
It’s really complicated to estimate the size of this market, not only for covid-19 but also for future coronaviruses. But the intuition is that it’s enormous for a $1.2 billion company and the stock price would probably multiply by several times if Aplidina proves to be succesfull.
To sum up, will Aplidin finally be proved to be successful to treat convid-19? Although, as I said before, the most probable answer is no, this is not the correct question, at least for low risk aversion investors. The right question is, what is the probability of Aplidin to tread covid-19 entering the market, how much can I won if it does it and how much can I lose if it doesn’t? In other words, is it a “value bet”?
Of course, nobody knows these numbers a priori, but investors can make their assumptions. Let’s be conservative and leave aside the likely positive newsflow coming in August on the potential FDA approval of Lurbinectedin for small cell lung cancer. On the downside, let’s remember that the stock was trading around 20% lower than current levels pre-covid19, so this 20% risk might be a fair estimate. On the upside, it’s impossible to make any assumptions. But given the potential volume of the coronavirus drugs market, the relatively small size of a Biotech like Pharma Mar, and given the Remdesivir and Gilead estimates described above, you can make your own numbers...
Daniel Mateos
The information flow about the progress of vaccines research, antiviral drugs and even covid-19 test kits has been an important factor that has affected financial markets since the outbreak emerged. In fact, some days it was the main driver that was moving the world equity indexes. Pharma companies that make a positive research public are seeing dramatic spikes in their stock price and upsets are being priced accordingly too.
One example is the American biotech Gilead Sciences. The constant positive and negative news on its antiviral drug Remdesivir has turned the stock into a rollercoaster. Another one is Moderna, a serious candidate to produce a vaccine, that has tripled in only 4 months, even though now is trading 50% off the highs. All in all, the Nasdaq Biotech sector is around 8% above the February highs and it seems that investors’ appetite for the sector in this new era has come to stay.
Most of pharma stocks with potential solutions against the covid-19 are implicitly pricing certain probabilities that their vaccines, antiviral medications or other products, will be approved and will come into the market. One of this companies is the Spanish biotech Pharma Mar and the reason for this article is that the market might not be pricing properly the chances of its antitumoral Aplidin becoming a successful player in the coronavirus drugs landscape.
Pharma Mar is a $1.2 billion market cap company focused on oncology and quoted in the Madrid Stock Exchange. Pharma Mar is the world leader in the discovery of antitumor drugs of marine origin. They have currently 2 drugs in the market, Yondelis and Aplidin, and a potential 3rd one, Lurbinectedin, to treat small cell lung cancer, is waiting to be approved by the FDA on August 16th, if not earlier. A Nature paper written by a group of international researchers, headed by Nevan Krogan of the University of California said that Aplidin, “might may inhibit the translation of viral RNA by promoting stress-granule aggregation”. And why an oncology company might have an effective drug against the coronavirus? Here we go.
Once the covid-19 outbreak emerged, Pharma Mar started thinking that their drug against multiple Myeloma, Aplidin, due to its special mechanism of action, could be a strong antiviral drug against covid-19 and also against other coronaviruses. Aplidin is a drug already approved in Australia for R/R Multiple Myeloma. To test their hypothesis, the company contacted the CSIC, a State Agency in Spain for scientific research and technological development. Some weeks later Luis Enjuanes, a prestigious virologist who leads the CSIC Biotechnology National Center and who is also researching to find a covid-19 vaccine, confirmed that the in vitro test they did with Aplidin was “quite spectacular”. The CSIC made tests with a SARS virus that kills humans and confirmed that Aplidin “not only inhibits the spread of the virus, but it does it at really low concentrations with a product that is not toxic for humans”. These results have also been confirmed by Adolfo García Sastre, director of the Global Health and Emerging Pathogens Institute of Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York, who went further and made the trials in humanized mices, with great results too.
Pharma Mar has stated that “the effect of Aplidin in the coronavirus is 1000 times higher than that of Remdesivir from Gilead”. The president of the company, Férnandez Sousa, has explained that the mechanism of action of Aplidin is different. “Most of antivirals try to attack a virus protein, while Aplidin attacks a protein of the cells that need it, what is called the host protein (EF1A), which Covid-19 infected human cells needs to reproduce and spread. This avoids the virus from generating resistance mutation.”
After these promising lab trials, the company presented a Phase II clinical trial in the Spanish Agency of Medicines and Medical Devices (AEMPS) and, 40 days after the request, the AEMPS accepted a Phase I clinical trial, that is already being carried out in 6 hospitals in Spain. The company was probably upset with the AEMPS decision. Firstly because, in such an extraordinary environment where thousands of people are dying daily worldwide, it took them 40 days to answer. Secondly because they expected a Phase II trial. Aplidin is already approved in Australia, so the toxicity shouldn’t have been an issue. Moreover, the dose needed to overcome the virus seems to be much lower than that to treat a myeloma. The good news is that results seem to be very promising. The company General director Luis Mora has said recently that the trials results are, for the moment “very very very good”. Pharma Mar is so confident on the effectiveness of Aplidin, that they have also approached the FDA and other national medical regulatory bodies. The number of potential patients that can be tested in the US is much larger than in Spain, where the pandemic has retreated significantly in the last weeks. They will receive an answer of the FDA within the next days or weeks and it has to be seen if, in case of an affirmative response, it will a be phase I or phase II clinical trial. In any case, the market is probably not pricing a potential positive response from the FDA.
Pharma Mar stock price has tripled in the last year, mainly due to the positive newsflow on their compound against small cell lung cancer lurbinectedin. The firm has already signed a licence and distribution agreement with Jazz Pharmaceuticals, whereby they have already received a $200 Mill. payment in January 2020. They are also eligible to receive regulatory milestone payments of up to $250 Mill upon regulatory approval, as well as royalties of up to 30% on net sales and $550 Mill.
But the stock return related to Aplidin as a potential drug against the coronavirus has been modest. Pharma Mar was trading just below €5 pre-covid19 and now is trading only around 1 eur higher. The question now is if the market is pricing correctly the potential of Aplidin as being one of the most powerful antiviral drugs to treat covid-19 and also all the coronaviruses that may appear in the future.
All in all, given that the phase of the trial is still I or II and even considering the optimistic feedback the company is making public, if we consider historical data on past clinical trials, the probability of Aplidin being launched to the market as a single agent is lower than 50%. That is, the most likely scenario is that Aplidina won’t get the market as an antiviral for covid-19. In fact analysts that cover the stock are pricing a zero probability.
But, what if it finally comes through? What would be the estimated sales? What could be the size of the market? Well, let’s make some numbers. Gilead Sciences market cap is nearly $20 billion higher than it was pre-coronavirus and it was nearly $30 billion higher when the stock price made its highs on April 17th after announcing successful results on their Phase III clinical trials for Remdesivir. On the other hand, some analysts expect peak sales of $7.6 billion for Remdesivir in 2022. Remdesivir has been authorized in the US under an emergency but it has not been approved by the FDA yet, so it’s not even pricing a full approval. Moreover, Remdesivir doesn’t seem to be a panacea. On April 23th the WHO accidentally revealed data from a study in China showing that the treatment neither improved patients’ condition nor tamped down on the amount of virus in their blood.
It’s really complicated to estimate the size of this market, not only for covid-19 but also for future coronaviruses. But the intuition is that it’s enormous for a $1.2 billion company and the stock price would probably multiply by several times if Aplidina proves to be succesfull.
To sum up, will Aplidin finally be proved to be successful to treat convid-19? Although, as I said before, the most probable answer is no, this is not the correct question, at least for low risk aversion investors. The right question is, what is the probability of Aplidin to tread covid-19 entering the market, how much can I won if it does it and how much can I lose if it doesn’t? In other words, is it a “value bet”?
Of course, nobody knows these numbers a priori, but investors can make their assumptions. Let’s be conservative and leave aside the likely positive newsflow coming in August on the potential FDA approval of Lurbinectedin for small cell lung cancer. On the downside, let’s remember that the stock was trading around 20% lower than current levels pre-covid19, so this 20% risk might be a fair estimate. On the upside, it’s impossible to make any assumptions. But given the potential volume of the coronavirus drugs market, the relatively small size of a Biotech like Pharma Mar, and given the Remdesivir and Gilead estimates described above, you can make your own numbers...
Daniel Mateos
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